Weekly Crypto Check-In

Robert Swarthout: 00:09

Welcome to another episode of the weekly crypto check-in recorded on April 2025 here. I'm your host, Robert Swartout. I'm joined by my cohost, Andres Sendati. How's it going, Andres?

Andres Sandate: 00:20

Good. It's good to see you again. I know we've had a little bit of a break. Yeah. Hope the last couple weeks have been been good for you.

Robert Swarthout: 00:28

Yeah. They've been good. And, also the, I guess, is a bit of a lead in. Our, the crypto news has been a little bit slower the last couple weeks. I think the world is so focused on tariffs right now.

Robert Swarthout: 00:40

Or whatever this is supposed to be, that, it has been a little bit of a reprieve from constant crypto news, which is, I guess, also appreciated at some level. So

Andres Sandate: 00:53

Yeah. There's been a lot lot of other, I guess, headlines probably that would be drowning out most crypto news anyway, this point, there's been some interesting developments as we'll get into. But yeah, the the focus has been largely on, you know, the back and forth trade war and obviously the resulting uncertainty around Jerome Powell's future at the Fed and the market's reaction and trying to digest it also. Yeah. But nevertheless, some some good updates and some things noteworthy to, to discuss.

Robert Swarthout: 01:27

Absolutely. Well, let's jump in here. So our first one is one we've been waiting for for a while. I mean, obviously, this is something that he was, I believe, nominated by Trump literally, like, the day or two following, the Trump's inauguration. But Paul Atkins was finally confirmed by the senate and, was sworn sworn in by Trump, I think is how that process works.

Robert Swarthout: 01:51

But any nonetheless, he is in place. And in his opening remarks, just after he had finished, you know, taking whatever oath he takes, he mentioned that he was looking forward to, keeping the politics out of security laws and provide a firm regulatory framework for the, digital assets. I'm like, wow. Like, I would have never guessed that within the first two sentences, we would be, as an industry named, which is potentially exciting. We'll see how it unfolds.

Andres Sandate: 02:22

Yeah. For sure. I mean, we talked about this for, you know, a number of months as far as what, you know, what what would be the, you know, the the chapter after Gensler's, you know, enforcement regulation through enforcement approach, pardon. And it does feel, as we discussed back to January, right, like the momentum around the industry was that we would finally get some legislation potentially beginning with stablecoins. There's been some interesting developments in the ensuing months, obviously, that have probably taken a lot more attention from Congress and lawmakers around trade and around some of the other economic policies of the Trump administration.

Andres Sandate: 03:08

But I think always in the background was the hope or aspiration was that Atkins would get in and for this particular area of the mandate would bring, obviously, just the needed clarity.

Robert Swarthout: 03:23

Yeah.

Andres Sandate: 03:24

Yeah.

Robert Swarthout: 03:26

There there's so much positive that's happened, since Trump's Trump's been in office with regards to crypto and just kind of, I guess, more of the rolling back of the, the war that happened against the industry. But I believe we're starting to turn the corner where now we can talk about that kind of things less talk about, like, moving forward. You mentioned the stablecoin stuff. And even so the SEC has been holding these roundtables. I believe this will be their second or third one with certain topics around crypto.

Robert Swarthout: 03:52

And this Friday, now that he's the chair, he'll be speaking at the SEC's roundtable in crypto trading. So, you know, what comes to that? Well, maybe we'll get to talk about it in another episode or maybe nothing comes of it. But Yeah. It's, you know, progress, may seem slow at some points, but then it comes really quick other times in this industry, it seems.

Robert Swarthout: 04:12

So maybe we're about to turn that corner. So

Andres Sandate: 04:14

Well, I think you said this on a prior, recording that sometimes decades happen in a matter of weeks. So it it it may be that that ends up being highly applicable over over his first, you know, months or or year in office.

Robert Swarthout: 04:32

Yeah. Yep. So, I guess the next topic is almost like a blast of the past here. So the Oregon AG attorney general has filed a suit against Coinbase. It's it speaks as if Ginsler wrote this for them, and they just launched it.

Robert Swarthout: 04:50

But they are naming they're claiming that Coinbase is selling 31 different tokens that are unregistered securities. They even named XRP as one. Even though there's a court decision at the federal level saying that that it is not it just blows my mind. It just seems highly highly political. And it's just like we I feel like we're we should be moving past this, but we are not, at least at the state level in some of these states.

Robert Swarthout: 05:19

Over half the states that had cases against different crypto businesses since the inauguration have dropped them. Dropped them. Oregon going the opposite direction adding one. I don't know. It's it's it seems crazy.

Andres Sandate: 05:33

Yeah. A little quacky.

Robert Swarthout: 05:35

Yes. And it just like I don't know. I'm kind of mixed feelings immediately. Like, I don't wanna see this thing happen, but I also feel like this is a little bit of bad debt karma that Coinbase is having to repay. At least as an XRP holder, when they decided to just kind of, like, abandon that whole, part of the market when the initial launch of the lawsuit against Ripple happened when they didn't have to.

Robert Swarthout: 06:03

And then they came along, and so they're fighting for the industry later. I don't know. They they seem to be potentially talking out of both sides of their mouth. So not that I want lawsuits to be launched against crypto companies, but maybe this if this one's gonna happen, at least it should happen to someone like Coinbase. So

Andres Sandate: 06:17

Yeah. Anyways It's gonna be yeah. There's there's there's there's there's definitely something, you know, that we'll have to pay attention to here. You know, we haven't heard a lot about Coinbase in terms of, you know, activity. There's been some M and A.

Andres Sandate: 06:33

We we covered, you know, XRP or Ripple acquiring Hidden Road, the prime and the just the amount of volume that they process and and transact on a regular bay daily basis there on that platform. I I kinda just feel like Coinbase is either going to make some type of strategic move. I feel like the M and A environment is, you know, is not doing you know, it's not gonna be a lot of M and A until I think the market's on more solid footing because obviously one of the currencies you have is your stock price. So Yeah. If you decide to use it.

Andres Sandate: 07:05

But I just I do think regulatory environment is more favorable for M and A, and I'm I'm I'm just curious to pay attention and watch to see what some of these bigger publicly traded firms in the digital asset crypto space decide to do now that you've got Atkins in place and and now it you know, the exception of this case, like, you largely feel not that it's smooth sailing, but there's there's more of a of an opportunity for for them to really be first movers as the the space seeks to get more legitimacy in the government and financial and and more enterprise arenas during the Trump administration.

Robert Swarthout: 07:46

Absolutely. And that that

Andres Sandate: 07:48

that's the lead in, you know, my build up, I guess, to to this next one because, you know, obviously Schwab is a huge player in in in the individual, you know, brokerage market and and the wealth management market serving as custody for, you know, so many of these players. But did you have a final thought on on the Oregon AG?

Robert Swarthout: 08:06

No. Just that more of a Coinbase comment in that it's a you know, I I view them more as a acquisition target rather than one that will be doing the targeting. Right. I I, you know, I think that it's a BlackRock, it's a JPMorgan. Someone like that may decide that they want a bit of a head start into the retail side Mhmm.

Robert Swarthout: 08:27

And kinda go that avenue. Because at the end of day, Coinbase is not all that big of a business Right. Valuation perspective. So we will see. But, yes, our third topic here is the Schwab CEO kinda came out with a comment, I believe at a conference, saying he expected, Schwab would be launching spot crypto trading within the next twelve months.

Robert Swarthout: 08:50

I think there's a couple requirements here. A, we need regulation in place or they're not gonna touch it. If they do, that would blow my mind. But also just you would not have guessed even six months ago that this comment would be coming out. It just shows how much things have changed.

Robert Swarthout: 09:08

He didn't mention which tokens it would be. It could be three tokens. It could be two. My guess is it's more than that, but not hundreds. It's probably not even 50.

Robert Swarthout: 09:17

And it's, in some ways, the, the bigger cap tokens are likely to be the ones that end up on these kind of list. In some sense, it's the rich get richer, and the smaller cap ones kind of have to, you know, I guess, fight for scraps at a Coinbase or something like that. So

Andres Sandate: 09:34

yeah, I mean, you know, the the thing about Schwab and and and if you threw in the other big custodian fidelity that serve as kind of the the central nervous system for most wealth management firms, you know, in terms of their their custody and trading and all the other aspects that you need in order to manage client capital like individual investor capital. The thing about Schwab is it's notoriously been harder and harder and it's changing, but it's been really hard for if you're an alternative asset manager or you sponsor a private offering, it's been hard to get on their platform. They have different requirements, obviously, and you should to to be on their platform, but to get a CUSIP and to be in a position where you can be found by advisers who clear custody through them is not easy. And it'll it it it will be fascinating to see of the thousands of different tokens, which ones they play with first or entertain first. I would imagine you're absolutely right.

Andres Sandate: 10:43

It's gonna be the big guys first. Mhmm. And then all these others are gonna be like every other hedge fund, private equity fund, real estate fund, you know, where you want to sell into the fastest growing channel for assets, which is the RIA channel. But in order to do that, a lot of RIAs, one of the first questions will be, are you on my Schwab platform? Are you on the ability platform?

Andres Sandate: 11:08

And if you're not, then it becomes a little bit harder. So I don't know that RIAs are rushing out to buy spot crypto, because the ETFs are there. However, it's an evolution and they obviously are doing this, you'd think strategically because Robinhood and some of these other platforms that have gotten very popular with individual investors, particularly younger ones, know, have been doing this for some time. So

Robert Swarthout: 11:37

yeah. What what's interesting, you know, I I foresee a world where we're not necessarily talking about crypto ETFs, maybe baskets or indexes of some kind. But one when when it gets down to individual assets, we have regulations in place, we don't necessarily need an ETF, a wrap around it. Right? You can just go buy the spot asset.

Robert Swarthout: 11:54

If somebody's buying a spot asset, that potentially, if they're curious enough, opens a world where they could use that asset in a DeFi world. Right? Then all of sudden, you don't care about a QSIP anymore. You can go buy whatever's out on these platforms Yeah. If they do enough research.

Robert Swarthout: 12:09

So, you know, there's money to be made and there's money to be lost in that scenario. And if you're not careful, you're likely to lose it. But it's a it's interesting to kinda see how these things could play out in ways that you're not quite expecting.

Andres Sandate: 12:21

So Yeah. And there's gonna be a lot more development over the next decade in the infrastructure where illiquid and let's call it assets that historically just did not have liquidity and they were not traded and you couldn't see them on there was no transparency in pricing. Like a lot of that is going to move on to the rails of, I would think, using blockchain technology. There's some big asset managers that are doing offerings. We've talked about a few of them, but their aspirations, I would think, are to be offering these securities globally where there's liquidity 20 fourseven.

Andres Sandate: 13:05

We talked about the changing of the market hours and one of the major exchanges. It's just going to move to a highly interconnected world. I think their biggest concern then is going to be making sure the system doesn't crack, much less collapse. But those are bigger, longer term existential threats that we'll have to confront over time.

Robert Swarthout: 13:26

Yep, We will have to and and I think that that plays out over years. Right? I mean Yeah, definitely.

Andres Sandate: 13:32

Happens. Yeah. That's that's years, if not decades. Yeah. In in the making.

Robert Swarthout: 13:36

Mhmm. So moving on here, our next topic, you know, I I knew there was a lot of applications out there for crypto ETFs. I would not have guessed it was as high as 72, and this was as of, like, three or four days ago. There may be a couple more at this point. Yeah.

Robert Swarthout: 13:50

It's daily now. Almost. It's daily. You almost don't even think any you know, like, oh, there's another one. Like, I I I stopped getting interested.

Robert Swarthout: 13:58

You break them down. The biggest ask well, the asset with the most filings is XRP. Some of them are spot. Some of them are two x long, two x short, all the different things. But it is the one with the most Solana's got a decent amount.

Robert Swarthout: 14:14

And then even some meme coins, the Trump, the millennial one. Yep. You know, the bizarro world we're in, we may see a literally a president having his meme coin ETF, in place. So

Andres Sandate: 14:26

Mhmm.

Robert Swarthout: 14:27

I I don't know how the SEC is gonna handle this. Like, are they gonna review these one by one? I mean because if not, well, if it was me if they're if they are, there's gonna a deluge of these things, if there's willing to be an issuer for them. Yep. I don't know.

Robert Swarthout: 14:41

I I think that it's, the next couple months, I think, will be telling to see how they handle this, whether they put a framework in place and it makes it easy for them to score these things or if they're gonna have to, like, read these things line by line and treat each one like they're truly independent.

Andres Sandate: 14:57

Well, so much of the experience I got in the ETF world would came from I was with a hedge fund some years ago, we explored setting up an ETF. The underlying securities would be MLPs that were general partners of MLPs. And so you're in the energy space and you're instead of buying just the LP, you would be investing in the general partner of the MLP. Anyway, we went pretty far down the road. We secured a ticker and we started exploring, talking to different providers and professionals and lawyers.

Andres Sandate: 15:37

We ultimately did not launch, but you know, what what I learned through that with this registered process and having to wait on the SEC and getting feedback is I've gotta think that a lot

Robert Swarthout: 15:48

of these, I gotta think a lot

Andres Sandate: 15:49

of these law firms are are like finding themselves in these conversations, you know, because the ETF industry has just grown exponentially and there's now ways to get very thematic exposures. If you're a wealth advisor and you want to get very specific exposures, there's actively managed, there's passive. And now this is, I mean, there's probably other ETFs areas of the ETF market that are growing, but this is certainly a growth area and all those providers must be just loving this environment of, you know, it's another application, which means there's been a lot of work that's put in place. I don't know how much of these will be around in two or three years if they were to launch because it's it's one thing to launch an ETF. It's another thing to get, you know, enough volume and liquidity to actually justify, you know, continuing to run it and pay for it, right?

Andres Sandate: 16:42

Yeah, there's going to be a lot more proliferation and obviously the target market for these things depends. There could be wealth advisors or individuals, but also bigger trades are happening with institutions. Yeah, just a lot of applications to watch and you turn around and a third of the IRS is like laid off or gone. So it's like a reality is the backlog could be real. Just how many people do you have process these things?

Andres Sandate: 17:11

Yeah.

Robert Swarthout: 17:11

A %. Yeah. So what what I think and I I should have been more clear upfront when we started talking about this one. It's not just the spot asset. There's a couple here, maybe three or four that are index ETFs.

Robert Swarthout: 17:24

Right? So and and I think they actually wanna be an index of more than what we currently have ETFs for. So it'd be interesting to see if the the SEC allows that to happen or if they say it has to be the ones that only have spot ETFs. But I I was talking to Casey the other day, and he was saying how the idea that, you know, his wealth management firm, he they have client portfolios that have Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in it. They have to deal with balancing that.

Robert Swarthout: 17:53

Right? They would love to have an index ETF that is market cap weighted and just be done with it. Yeah. A lot less compliant, lot less rebalancing this work. So the the that day is coming.

Robert Swarthout: 18:04

I don't know how soon, but it'll probably be here. Sometime this year, be my guess.

Andres Sandate: 18:09

Yeah. I mean, if you're managing models and you're managing client portfolios and you have a hundred a hundred clients, let's say, I mean, the last thing you wanna do is have to go in one by one and, you know, manage individual portfolios. I mean, there's some of that that still happens. But yeah, I mean, the idea that you can get the exposure that you want for your clients to the space in an efficient tax efficient on top of that vehicle where you get liquidity and you can move in and out or you can size up and down. I think a lot of wealth managers, again, the due diligence back to the Schwab thing.

Andres Sandate: 18:45

Are you on Schwab? Is it something I can scale up across my whole portfolio? All my clients that do want the exposure. Those things matter. So lot lot lot to come here.

Andres Sandate: 19:01

But but yeah. I mean, you gotta think there's a lot of applications that are still even in the works that haven't even been filed.

Robert Swarthout: 19:07

Yep. Yep. Indeed. So our next topic is more of an educational thing. This is the nonfinancial side of crypto.

Robert Swarthout: 19:17

I I love to see these when these happen because it seems like, excuse me, the nonfinancial side of blockchain. Let me be very clear about that. Crypto being a piece of blockchain. But the use of blockchain, I think, is can be, rather immense over time. And right now, it's all about crypto.

Robert Swarthout: 19:33

Yeah. So in this case, we're talking about voting records on a blockchain. They're a New York assemblyman, Clyde Vannell, introduced assembly bill to propose blockchain technology to protect voter records and election results. You know, you probably not gonna be surprised when I say this. I think this is where it ends up down the road.

Robert Swarthout: 19:52

I don't know if it happens in this particular set of in in this year or even the next couple years. But I think the transparency that comes around blockchain and if we truly wanna you know, this is not meant to be political, but it probably gonna come across that way. If we wanna have elections that we can believe in, and nobody can point one way or the other, I think blockchain is a way to accomplish that for everybody, whether everyone who wants to realize that or not. Right now is probably the challenge.

Andres Sandate: 20:19

Yeah. I mean, you gotta think Dominion. Right? Dominion They're not gonna be happy about it. Technology.

Andres Sandate: 20:23

I you know, I gotta I gotta wonder like in their strategy room, are they discussing how they, I don't know, do they adopt the technology or does it make their company in some sense irrelevant? Are people quote unquote still going to the polls in a traditional sense and waiting on lines out in horrible weather or, you know, what what because there are people, you know, there are people who are gonna wanna answers to all those questions. But but yeah.

Robert Swarthout: 20:50

The part that caught me the most off guard with this particular news item was it came from New York. Right? Not not a state that I figured would be the first mover in this. Right.

Andres Sandate: 20:59

Yeah. You'd think it'd be somewhere maybe like Texas or Alabama or Georgia. Yeah.

Robert Swarthout: 21:05

You know, California comes to mind because of technology, but not because of so left leaning in the sense of the way that they view elections right now. So I I don't know. Yeah. Times will be interesting the next, call it, five years with stuff like this as we start to see other use cases for blockchain besides just the financial side with crypto. So Yeah.

Andres Sandate: 21:25

Hopefully, they'll start working on the DMV next.

Robert Swarthout: 21:28

DMV? So like I love our DMV's, but Well, mean, car titles, house deeds Car titles. All those house deeds. I mean, I think I somebody I don't know if it's gonna be like a legal zoom.com, but to be able to create contracts between individuals that get put on a blockchain that are self validating. I think that that sounds very techy.

Robert Swarthout: 21:50

But I think it that's something that that world is here rather quickly, more so than waiting decades for this and like that. So we'll see. This next one is less of a news item and just more of just an observation. Right? The crypto markets well, first of all, Liberation Day on April feels like months ago.

Robert Swarthout: 22:11

We're barely three weeks ago. And, obviously, the equities market has been all over the place, largely down, and this huge moves, from their perspective. It seems like just another day in in crypto when you look at the moves percentage wise. But if you contrast that with crypto, Bitcoin is up almost 9% since the second. XRP is up 8%.

Robert Swarthout: 22:40

And there's many other tokens that are up. I think Ethereum over that same period of time. Ethereum actually is down 9%. But at the end of the day, it's a it's cool to see this market in some sense holding its own. I think we got beat up so much in March that we

Disclaimer: 22:56

Yeah.

Robert Swarthout: 22:57

Kind of, we're already, laying on the floor. We didn't have to be knocked down, on April. So but it's it it was great to see that we didn't continue to get beat down as as the equity market went down. So

Andres Sandate: 23:09

Yeah. I mean, this is the most volatile month in the equity market since back to 2020, you know, during COVID. So the volatility in in the equity markets and then to some extent, you know, cryptos followed it largely did. It felt like in the first quarter. But but, yeah, it it it does seem like Bitcoin is is held more steady.

Andres Sandate: 23:33

You know, I gold went on a huge rally over the last month, and everybody said Bitcoin was digital gold. Mhmm. I'm not hearing that so much.

Robert Swarthout: 23:43

No. You you know what you're hearing right now, which is absolute dislike. All those

Andres Sandate: 23:48

all those Bitcoin Maxis, I'm I'm just not hearing that narrative. You know?

Robert Swarthout: 23:52

Yeah. That narrative seemed to gone away. But what they are saying is, oh, Bitcoin is decoupling from, gold in the, the stock market. I'm not quite sure how to process that besides I just think it's crazy. You can't use a three week period to define anything.

Robert Swarthout: 24:09

It is way too short. Let's talk about this over months or years and maybe, but it's, because it you know, for a while, it's a Bitcoin's a hedging into inflation. Well, we proved that is not the case. Now we're on the next one. It's it seems to be that that the maxi crowd for Bitcoins is, always hunting for something, to carry their flag with rather than just, in my opinion, having utility.

Robert Swarthout: 24:31

But that's an opinion for sure.

Andres Sandate: 24:36

Yeah. Oh, that one makes me yawn because yeah. You're right. Like, it's just oh, gosh. We could we could spend an hour talking about this.

Andres Sandate: 24:44

But yeah, it does feel like there's there's constantly a search for the next narrative and the and the quote, unquote, next use case. But the let them have their let them have their thoughts. Yeah. We got one more talk topic to cover today, and that's that 15 crypto firms with OCC trust charter applications.

Robert Swarthout: 25:04

Yes. So for those that I guess, maybe a little getting people up to speed here, OCC is the off office of the comptroller of the currency. Yep. And charter applications mean that they can be viewed kind of in a upgraded light. But specifically, what most of these applications are after are to be are looking to get master accounts at the Fed.

Robert Swarthout: 25:28

Yep. And that that has never happened for crypto. There's been some lawsuits around it that are ongoing about why the Fed won't do it. The Fed claims that it's to protect the financial system because the volatility in crypto there's all these different reasons. I think it's largely been political up until this point.

Robert Swarthout: 25:44

But what what I think what they're really seeking is when they want that master account, that would allow a crypto company, x y z, that got one of these to not have to use a traditional bank. And they could interact with the crypto world and then still have access to the traditional financial system but not be dealing with all the politics of a a JPMorgan, a Wells Fargo, Bank of America, or whatever you want it want it to be. So this one is interesting because I think that there's there's a world here, and I think it's probably more likely than not that it does happen. It may take the rest of this year. But Brian Brooks, when he was, in place during Trump's first presidency, started this in trying to loosening the rules for crypto to get further in.

Robert Swarthout: 26:27

It didn't get as far as master accounts. A lot of that work got rolled back under the Biden administration. And now that a Brooks protege is in place at the OCC, it looks like they may be able to make some more progress and potentially, you know, get it to the point where they're actually having to force the Fed to make a decision yes or no on these kind of things.

Andres Sandate: 26:47

The, you know, the the, I guess the rules or the framework under which the firms that are going through this application process, they want to avoid or there's a question, do they want to avoid the what they call stringent or overburdensome regulations that are associated with other

Robert Swarthout: 27:14

regulated financial institutions? I don't think it's that as much as it is. Think the if not all of these applicants, I don't know the whole list, but I would assume all of these applicants would love regulations for the industry. Like they want that kind of clarity. And they wanna be able to interact to be able to do payments better or whatever their business is.

Andres Sandate: 27:34

With their customers.

Robert Swarthout: 27:35

With their customers. I think they're just trying to cut out a middleman of sorts. And at the end of the day, not just cutting out the middleman, but it's also cutting out the fees of that. It's cutting out the politics of that. It's cutting out just another point of failure potentially.

Robert Swarthout: 27:50

Yeah. And just, you know

Andres Sandate: 27:52

Yeah. I was curious if if you you've seen the, you know, the rise of private credit and non bank lending and private debt as an asset class over the last, really since the financial crisis, so over the last fifteen to twenty years. And a lot of that has been driven by the banks retrenching and pulling out due to regulations and new requirements and capital reserve requirements and all the things that came into place after we had so many bank bailouts in the GFC. And I'm just curious if these companies are hoping to to get a different sort of regulatory regime where it's it's regulation, but it's light in a way so that it doesn't you know, the same thing that's happened to banks, right? It's prevented them from being able to, they would argue, go out and lend more easily because they've got to reserve more dollars for every dollar they lend.

Andres Sandate: 28:58

And that's allowed these other groups to step in, private credit, private bank, non bank lenders, private debt funds to to step in and fill the void?

Robert Swarthout: 29:07

Yeah. You know, I think that it this goes back to the industry wanting, to to your point, light touch regulation, much like the Internet got in the early nine it was gonna be the late nineties, early '2 thousands that allowed it to flourish, and then we could figure out how to properly regulate it versus over regulating a technology before it has a chance to really, you know, prove its worth.

Andres Sandate: 29:26

Right. So Right.

Robert Swarthout: 29:28

We're early. We're still very early for that matter, but, you know, regulation will help kind of add a little fuel to the fire for growth. So Sure. Sure. Well, I think that's a wrap for today.

Robert Swarthout: 29:39

So thanks for joining us on this episode of the weekly crypto check-in. To stay updated on future episodes, you can find in us find us in any podcast player by searching T Time Crypto Capital or the weekly crypto check-in. Take care.

Disclaimer: 29:50

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Disclaimer: 30:16

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