Ep 31 - April 9, 2025 - Unmasking Satoshi

Robert Swarthout:

Welcome to another episode of the weekly crypto check-in recorded on April 2025. I'm your host, Robert Swartel. I'm Jeremy and my cohost, Andres Sandate. How's it going, Andres?

Andres Sandate:

Hey, Robert. Good. I'm here in Midtown Atlanta doing doing this recording remote today. I'm at an alt conference, so it's good to connect. You know?

Andres Sandate:

The the the we were just talking before we went live. You know, the market had quite a big day today to the to the upside that we find ourselves, you know, digesting more more announcements. In this case, I guess, positive reaction from the market with with Trump's delay of some of the tariffs?

Robert Swarthout:

Yeah. Just kind of a bit of a ninety day, I guess, breed of sorts. This allows some negotiations to happen. Seems like applying to most countries. I think Canada, Mexico, and maybe China.

Robert Swarthout:

Probably been

Andres Sandate:

up to more interesting things than following the tariffs, in the news, but I know that Yeah. Yeah. The the the masters is this weekend in in Atlanta. There's a rumor somebody might be there that's on this.

Robert Swarthout:

Yeah. I'm excited about

Andres Sandate:

Not named

Robert Swarthout:

Andres. Fair enough. Yeah. I'm looking forward to going. It's always pretty cool.

Robert Swarthout:

If you ever get a chance to go, it's definitely worth the finding time, moving stuff in your schedule to make it happen.

Andres Sandate:

Well, here's one one one quick masters question for you who you you have been before. I was at breakfast this morning with a person who's going and he said, you know, the one question I got and I've heard is when you listen to the Masters on TV and it's, you know, Nance is calling it and you you hear the wildlife in the background. But when you go to the masters, and this guy had been, you never see any birds. So he said, You're a local guy in Georgia. What's the deal?

Andres Sandate:

And I just said, tongue in cheek, Well, if I told you, I'd give away the big secret and you wouldn't come back. And PETA would be all over me. So any any insight to that?

Robert Swarthout:

I I my guess is they're overlaying that noise, making some background noise. I mean, because you're you're in the crowd. People aren't always talking, but there's crowd noise. Or also that what you don't ever hear on TV is there's a good amount of drones flying around doing TV stuff, and you hear the drones. So you don't obviously get that, feedback and that noise through the TV.

Robert Swarthout:

So

Andres Sandate:

Got it. Alright.

Robert Swarthout:

Well, maybe I'm just too busy eating all the great food too. So

Andres Sandate:

Yeah. Exactly. Yeah. Yeah. Well, enjoy that.

Andres Sandate:

And, let's talk about crypto. What a what an interesting few weeks it's been since we last recorded. You know? A lot of volatility and lot of

Robert Swarthout:

announcements. And, we appreciate everyone's patience too because we've been sick and dealing with that. So it's been three weeks. So Yeah. But we are gonna keep this episode short.

Robert Swarthout:

So we'll just jump in here. First one about the SEC chair vote. So this is, you know, if when Trump first got elected, was like, nothing's gonna happen to the SEC with regard to crypto before the chair got in. And I I've always heard it takes months and months, and that's been my experience. Well, it has taken months, but the acting SEC chair in the SEC has actually been getting stuff done in crypto.

Robert Swarthout:

So I haven't been antsy about this one getting in place. But the good news is is Paul Atkins had his hearing in front of the committee late March. I think it was like twenty seventh or twenty eighth. And then that went seemling pretty well. And he has, if everything stays to schedule, a floor vote potentially as early as this evening at 7PM.

Robert Swarthout:

So this is on April. I I don't see something materially changing at the SEC because he's there. It seems like they're already down working down their path in their in their plan, which is great to see. But be kinda nice to kinda get this one tied off with a bow and feel like we actually have full leadership and immediately, an extra, in this case, Republican voting or right leaning commissioner. So then it would be certainly outweighing the the sole remaining democrat.

Robert Swarthout:

There've been a

Andres Sandate:

lot of announcements from the SEC to your point since, you know, the changeover in leadership from Gensler. And I think most people that are in the financial markets and that have worked in a regulated environment right the securities industry the investment and asset management business right the the news generally has been from a regulatory standpoint more positive to the industry as far as fewer enforcement actions, less of this dragnet approach and enforcement through fines, etcetera. They're still gonna go after bad actors as they should. But I think in terms of clarity and the direction and the leadership, would expect, yeah, to your point, what he's approved or I guess confirmed is the right word. It should be another positive development for crypto.

Andres Sandate:

As he's indicated, he's gonna be in favor of a lot of the things I think we're gonna talk about today. Stable as in, you know Yeah. Crypto not being securities, etcetera. Yeah. Absolutely.

Robert Swarthout:

And, like, even in his hearing in front of the the banking committee, he was he reinforced that he is digital assets are a top priority for him at the SEC this year. He he, like, made a point to say this year versus other years and getting workable rules and regulatory clarity for crypto in place. And, the the acting well, the commissioner and the acting chair now have definitely already started some of that work. So it's it's great to kind of feel like he I would imagine he feels like he's not having to clean up a mess. That that largely has already been done Yeah.

Robert Swarthout:

When it comes to crypto. So Yeah. We we'll see here this evening. And maybe next week when we chat, we can share some good news there. So Mhmm.

Robert Swarthout:

Our next topic actually came out in the news this week. So Ripple acquired Hidden Road. Hidden Road is a prime broker that actually interfaces both with TradFi and with crypto. So they're kind of this, I guess, two headed monster of sorts. And they, apparently, this deal has been in the works for a while.

Robert Swarthout:

I don't know how long, but it's, Brad Garlinghouse did mention that. And it's, Hidden Road is, a growing prime broker, but more specifically, they they settle about 3,000,000,000,000 a year in trades. So they are a good size.

Andres Sandate:

Yeah. I'm curious if if in the press release or what you what you were able to find, if if Brad Garlinghouse of Ripple talked about is the intention to expand their offerings and their product lines and service lines. Because when I think about prime brokers, right, they wanna basically serve the institutional asset management community doing trading and a variety of other services and products for, let's call it, just the fund managers, asset managers Right.

Robert Swarthout:

Yeah. Across different assets. Yeah. So I guess I'll answer your question, but I'm gonna answer something else first. So the the total deal they're paying is 1,250,000,000.00 for Hidden Road.

Robert Swarthout:

It's a mixture of cash, XRP, and some Ripple stock, I do know. But at the end of the day, one of the reasons why they're looking or Ripple was interested in Hidden Road was they're gonna use Ripple stablecoin as these as the counterparty settlement mechanism for all the trades within Hidden Road. So that's gonna bring a ton of volume. I mean, just to give you perspective, the RLUSD stablecoin, I think, is like a $2.03, $400,000,000 market cap. So it's real relatively small in the scope of stablecoins.

Robert Swarthout:

The hidden road settles $10,000,000,000 on a daily basis.

Andres Sandate:

Okay.

Robert Swarthout:

Uh-huh. So it it could be a light switch moment of sorts for that particular stablecoin. Obviously, Ripple, the more money that's there, that that is a revenue source for them Yeah. Where interest rates are at. So that can be pretty sizable over the long term.

Robert Swarthout:

Yeah. Well, I

Andres Sandate:

think taking that that fourth headline down, we'll we'll come back to this topic around stablecoins. But yeah, stablecoins is kind of woven its way through this entire update, right? And the importance and kind of you don't do this deal unless you probably have confidence that we're gonna see legislation. If you fear the SEC is gonna deem these securities. Right?

Andres Sandate:

So all this kind of is tied together. But Absolutely. But a notable deal. Right? One of the largest in crypto.

Robert Swarthout:

The largest in history. Think one of top two or three largest in the deals in crypto ever. So big deal. You know, Ripple, people assume they're going public sometime soon. They they can even today, I was listening to podcasts when they were talking about this particular deal.

Robert Swarthout:

And Monica Long, a president at Ripple, was saying how they're looking at growing organically and inorganically but growing their business. They don't they don't have a reason to go public because they have liquidity. So and a and a strong balance sheet. So the we're just gonna see how this evolves. I guess the other half of what may be interesting about this is this hidden road.

Robert Swarthout:

Ripple has ambitions to have a lot of the trades that need to settle that don't have great liquidity amongst them to have that happen on the XRP ledger, which would be a gigantic step forward for crypto. Even if it wasn't XRP, it'd be different. It didn't matter. Crypto doesn't do this right now. But XRP Ledger was designed to have this bridging mechanism built into it.

Robert Swarthout:

So if you need to get from one inefficient thing to another inefficient thing, XRP would kind of be that be that connecting dot there. So that will take time obviously to develop and kind of get going there. And and probably quickly gets in the weeds, but it's, it was it was a big, it it kinda shocked me. I didn't expect Ripple to do this. Not that I should be expecting it either, but it was it was cool to kinda see them continue to, ramp up their deals.

Robert Swarthout:

And their deals continually get bigger. So I don't know if the next one after this is gonna be even bigger, but it'll be entertaining if it is.

Andres Sandate:

So Well, goes back to, you know, two things, commercial utility. Right? And and what's the application of these cryptocurrencies and their ledgers outside of what skeptics would say, just meme coins and trading amongst just the crypto community. Clearly, this is a flag in the ground type of moment, right, where we can see the application of the blockchain technology applied to a legit real business, if you will, and then an institutional one at that. So yeah, pretty cool.

Andres Sandate:

And also like just another, you know, in a way just another proof point that the technology does not have to apply just to single use case. Because I know we had always talked about XRP in the context of like the swift network and settlement payments, right, and sort of disrupting the notion of going in and wiring money using Western Union or or more of a traditional way to get money from country A to country B. Now you see, you know, the technology being used in a completely different, but meaningful way.

Robert Swarthout:

Right. But to tie that back together though, as there becomes more liquidity because of the hidden roads, assume they get back on the XRP ledger and they're doing all the things That liquidity is available amongst the XRP ecosystem. So then it makes it easier for their payments business. So these things will definitely be a flywheel effect Yeah. Assuming they get they get rolling.

Robert Swarthout:

So Yeah. Yeah. But, I imagine we'll end up talking about this one multiple times, over the next year or so as they kind of it is the deal's not officially done. I think they had think a month or two in regulatory approval, but doesn't seem like that's gonna be a issue for everything that I've read. So we will jump to our next one.

Robert Swarthout:

I again, this this one caught me off guard. There's a new first of all, there's a new crypto podcast out there called Crypto in America. It is run by Eleanor Tourette. She used to be at Fox Business, and she made a bit of her name for herself by being a journalist that was curious about crypto, especially the SEC Ripple case, and and it was, I guess, sharing that information on Fox Business on the TV station. Now she's kind of done her own thing and she's had this exclusive thing that she launched or not that she basically was able to break.

Robert Swarthout:

So there's an attorney. He goes on Twitter. He goes by Meta Lawman, but his name is James Murphy. He's been kind of hovering around the XRP case and would not the XRP the Ripple case, not the XRP case, but he would kinda chime in. And he seems like a, you know, smart guy that understands law and kind of the crossroads of crypto.

Robert Swarthout:

But he has filed a lawsuit against the Department of Homeland Security. Apparently, did some research and some investigations, and they and he thinks that they know who Satoshi Nakamoto is, the creator of Bitcoin. You know, part of the allure of Bitcoin for Bitcoin people is they don't know who the creator is. It's like this mysterious person. If they ever were to be found, that person technically, if they still have keys to their wallet, hold 20% of Bitcoin.

Robert Swarthout:

So it's like a gigantic number in billions of dollars. I would imagine every Bitcoiner would say they never wanna find out who this person is. They want they want that mystery to be there. When I saw this, thing where he's suing the Department of Homeland Security who he thinks they believe in who it is, if that if this comes true and we find out who this is or the p or the group of people, holy crap. Like, that seems like a an accidental threat to Bitcoin from a price perspective.

Robert Swarthout:

That would be interesting to see how the market digest, and it's probably not a good thing. So Yeah.

Andres Sandate:

I was gonna say, you know, there's some discovery motion, I'm sure, that's been filed. Right? Homeland Security, though, wants to see information that they have or what's the scope of their investigation.

Robert Swarthout:

So he the scope, I guess, is right now, at least, if I read this correctly, is centering around he has another attorney named Brian Field who specializes in foyer request that he is is helping him with this request. Yeah. You know, you have an administration that seems to want to Well,

Andres Sandate:

they released the JFK. A little bit.

Robert Swarthout:

Right. Yeah. At least selectively so far. It'll be interesting to kinda see what what happens here. And then you have the added dynamic, the Trumps or the Trumps sons are doing their Bitcoin thing, their Bitcoin mining.

Robert Swarthout:

It could negatively affect them. Like, how does all this, had all these pieces of spaghetti tied together, I guess, is the question. So

Andres Sandate:

Yeah. Well, when when I saw the headline, I thought, man, this is a this is like a Dateline Friday night unmasking Satoshi special. Robert has identified like a new line of work but yeah nevertheless like news so we'll have to cover it and like you said we probably don't have time for it today but maybe on a future episode we'll have to play out what your you know potential what's the theory out what's the working theory out there if in fact it turns out that this is you know some super smart computer programmer you know sitting in the middle of nowhere in the middle of the country that's created this. You know, what what plays out? But maybe that's the hook to get people to listen

Robert Swarthout:

to the next episode. Here we go. Yeah. Yeah. Awesome.

Robert Swarthout:

We will see.

Andres Sandate:

We have to keep going though because we gotta get you to Augusta. So the SEC, stablecoins are not securities. You can use music to the industry's ears. Right? We talked about stablecoins earlier.

Robert Swarthout:

And and they were very specific, which I appreciate because the SEC for the last four years around crypto have been very ambiguous. But in this case, they said fully reserved liquid dollar back stablecoins are not securities. Yeah. And and people wonder like what why aren't all secure why aren't all stablecoins that? Well, there technically are stablecoins that are what they call algorithmic that actually follow crypto prices and try to, like, balance it there.

Robert Swarthout:

Those always have seemed like a bad idea to me. Some of those are blown up in very, unfun ways. But this was cool to see the SEC do this. And it's interesting. You don't normally see agencies trying not to get turf.

Robert Swarthout:

The SEC has been giving up a lot of turf assuming that they would have kept it had they done the otherwise. So but it is cold to kinda see. So

Andres Sandate:

So the stablecoins are not securities so long as they fit a specific they meet a specific set of requirements, like pegged effectively one to one to the US dollar?

Robert Swarthout:

Or whatever whatever currency. But I think the SNC probably only cares about dollars would be my guess. Yeah. And we'll and we'll our second to last topic here we'll get into this really does interface into the legislation that's being worked on. But it does seem like things are getting cleaned up so that legislation can just kinda roll out and everyone is in a good spot.

Robert Swarthout:

Right.

Andres Sandate:

Yep. Okay.

Robert Swarthout:

So that was a quick one. This next one is a little bit of a head scratcher to me. So Circle is the issuer of the stablecoin USDC, and it's the second largest one. It's billions of market cap, probably $5,060,000,000,000 or something like that. I haven't looked in a while.

Robert Swarthout:

So they filed to go public. They're based in New York. They're doing all the things. So a lot of disclosures are coming out about them. And the one that blew me away or actually a couple They as a business spend $250,000,000 a year on compensation for their employees.

Robert Swarthout:

They have 800 employees. Wow. Okay. So interesting. They're paying their employees pretty well.

Robert Swarthout:

Yeah. Or at least some of them. But if you contrast this with it is a known kind of number how many employees Tethr has. So Tethr is a magnitude bigger, not magnitude, probably two or three times bigger than USDC. They're based they were based in The Caymans.

Robert Swarthout:

I think they're moving to I know we talked about this El Salvador or somewhere. But Tether has a hundred employees. They're a bigger business that has hundred employees. Circle has 800. And I'm like, okay, why is there a Delta of 700 employees?

Robert Swarthout:

Like, it's a huge difference. And I have wondered, is this the difference of running a compliant business and a non compliant business? Or like regulation, like what is this the regulatory tax that we're feeling and seeing this number? I don't know. I don't know if I'll ever get that answer, but it's as more of their business happens, you know, or as as they get further along in the IPO process, more stuff will come out.

Andres Sandate:

Yeah, we'll learn. Because one of the things we talked about on an earlier update was the profit per employee. People speculated It's Heather. Heather because they are moving their headquarters to El Salvador and there isn't as much transparency and there isn't as much information you just have to kind of piece together based on various news reports somewhat speculation. Stablecoin going through, I mean, pardon, Circle going through the S1 process has now filed and people can go out through the SEC, pull the document, read about their business, and see a lot more.

Andres Sandate:

I am super curious what the bigger financial institutions right there in their backyard are thinking about this business. I have to think these bigger banks, bigger asset managers, if this business proves to be like Ripple's doing, got a stable coin, we've talked about that for some time. As you start seeing the players come to market, I got to think, we haven't heard the last of Circle and something tells me uncle Larry, grandpa Larry, he's in the background. There's something cooking up. Right.

Andres Sandate:

I No. BlackRock is not one to let these big giant asset pools and businesses just be You approach on their turf, absolutely. Right. Right. Not a good time BlackRock, right?

Robert Swarthout:

Correct. I mean

Andres Sandate:

is just these are monumental type of things that are happening. Again, they filed to go public. Ripple's got this activity with Hidden Road. These are announcements that are obviously there are things that we're gonna talk about in future episodes, but it's just fascinating to see. And there's gonna be more M and A activity to come.

Robert Swarthout:

Yeah. And it would not shock me if they get scooped up because my guess is this is not a hot sock when it goes out the door. Specifically, if you could start digging into some of these details and we won't go through all of them, but like they're basically market cap has not grown for the last three years. Right. Right.

Robert Swarthout:

Of the stablecoin. Rates are not gonna go higher unlikely. So their return is probably at the peak it's gonna be unless they can grow their whole market cap of the stable coin itself. And they have an arrangement with Coinbase because Coinbase uses them as exclusive as the exclusive stable coin right now that roughly, I think it's like 40% of their circle revenue goes to Coinbase. Wow.

Robert Swarthout:

So, like, I wouldn't say they're in a corner, but, like, it just doesn't seem like an amazing, like, business. It it's it's cool what they built, but, like, it doesn't seem like investors are gonna be like, oh my gosh. They're gonna buy this like hotcakes.

Andres Sandate:

Yeah, I have a hard time thinking this ends up in a Vanguard fund or some mutual fund rate because they're looking for something different. This, I don't know, again speculation just feels more like an acquisition candidate. Right. Get the technology and seven forty people are looking for work.

Robert Swarthout:

All of a sudden, yeah, absolutely. I mean, because people are speculating that they are only gonna be valued at like $5,000,000,000. So like, that's like chump change to all these other, you know, entrenched industrial or financial players that they could make an acquisition also and have a stablecoin business that they could sell through their own channels.

Andres Sandate:

Right. We will see. Well, with the next headline, the stablecoin legislation progressing, it would make sense that somebody out there who's looking to make a move in crypto or be active in this space now that the SEC's announced the stablecoins are not securities, the legislation is progressing, you start to see the chessboard clear up a little bit and the pieces are in place for a bigger financial institution to say, this is now the time, there's more regulatory clarity, now's the time to make a move. Circle goes out and get leverage because it's like, hey, we're gonna go public. We're gonna keep moving down that road or you can take us out.

Andres Sandate:

Just write us a big check.

Robert Swarthout:

Absolutely. And admittedly, the first firm that comes to mind is JPMorgan. So it seems like right. So so stablecoin legislation progressing out of committee more or still in committees and So there there is a house bill and a senate bill. One is called the stable act.

Robert Swarthout:

One is called the genius act. They functionally were trying to skin the cat two different ways. They've come together. There was a thirteen hour session in the financial services committee for, to basically reconcile the differences between these two bills. It made it through the committee with bipartisan support.

Robert Swarthout:

I I cannot tell you how shocked I am about the bipartisan part of that sentence. It was 32 to 17 with six Democrats voting for it. And it is now ready, you know, to kinda move to the next stage, which I believe has to go back. Now they have this new version of each bill. Each each portion of the house has to each portion of congress, excuse me, has to go and vote on it, and then it would be on its way.

Robert Swarthout:

Like, at the end of the day, Trump, back a month and a half ago had said that he wanted to have stablecoin legislation on his desk by the August recess. And you know what? Outside of the world blowing up and this terror stuff really dragging on and getting a lot of congress's attention, I think there's a like a really a fighting chance that we have our first sort of crypto regulation albeit a stable coin by August.

Andres Sandate:

Well, yeah. Mean, look, I mean, human nature. Right? Some of these folks probably realize, man, when I go back to speaking my local district, there's so much frustration and disappointment and anger and uncertainty. There are folks in DC that want to work, right?

Andres Sandate:

They want to do things. And this is a piece of legislation, stablecoins. I mean, it's kind of a momentous, again, use that word again, it's a point in time this industry won't, you won't be able to look back if you're that congressperson, congressman or woman. You're not gonna be able to look back and say, man, I was a part of something that really opened the door and opened the floodgates to something that ended up being pretty transformational, I would argue. And maybe they wanna be a part of that, right?

Andres Sandate:

Maybe they wanna be a part of that and be in it. And and so, yeah, I I'm not surprised that there are some democrats that got on board. And I'm surprised to your point if if we see a lot more momentum out of this over the next month, two months.

Robert Swarthout:

Yeah. I I think the at the end of the day, the most surprising part maybe was just that there was 17 people, I assume mostly democrats, maybe all, that voted against it. Like, of all the things that you could be voting for and against, like, where's the dog in the fight here? May maybe it's Elizabeth Warren and her crew who are very much entrenched in the traditional finance and banking part. But I don't know.

Robert Swarthout:

Well, hopefully, we have some more news here in the next couple weeks about this, and we can continue talking it. So our last topic is from the FDIC. So it seemed like every agency underneath the sun in the the Biden administration had some rule that was like, basically, like, we had to figure out how to kill crypto. That's and the f t FDIC had one where it basically told banks that they couldn't interface or bank crypto cuss customers without first asking the FDIC for permission. They dropped that rule.

Robert Swarthout:

And what didn't make it in these notes, I mean, I guess it could be our last pull bullet point after this is the DOJ even had a thing that we would target crypto companies and and basically suspect that they might be breaking the law. And so they have said that they would be stop stopping that policy as well. So, you know, in some sense, this the sky continues to get a little bit more clear and less less clouds in it for crypto. At some point, we're only really waiting for legislation, and that could really be pretty entertaining to see what that does. So

Andres Sandate:

Yeah. I mean, this look. This sometimes, you you know, you have two or three weeks and you have these updates, and you you kinda take away that, okay, there is actually some positive momentum. I mean, it's been a super volatile time in the equity markets. Look at today.

Andres Sandate:

It's been a very, you know, volatile time in in crypto, right, over the last, few months. So there are and we've been saying this Robert, like there have been things happening in the background and the headlines around legislation, stablecoin, the path forward looks a little bit more clear, more M and A activity. We talked about that today. That's because there's more confidence. So yeah, it's interesting to see all this stuff sort of happening.

Andres Sandate:

We'll certainly not be three weeks before the next update, but yeah, but nevertheless, like a good update on the industry and we'll have to see just what transpires over the next period with, you know, the the geopolitical and macro environment, but certainly happening you know, all of that happening while crypto's, you know, industry is taking a step hopefully forward.

Robert Swarthout:

Absolutely. Well, I think that's a wrap. So thanks for joining us on this episode of the weekly crypto check-in. To stay updated on future episodes, you can find us in any podcast player by searching T Time Crypto Capital or the weekly crypto check-in. Take care.

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Creators and Guests

Andres Sandate
Host
Andres Sandate
Husband, 3x Dad, Latinx, SpecFin, FinTech, Private Credit, ATLalts Pod Host, SEAFA Pres., Ball Coach, Kansas Jayhawk, Raised in Newton, KS, Reside in Smyrna, GA
Robert Swarthout
Host
Robert Swarthout
GP focused on commercial use case cryptocurrencies. #XRPL dUNL validator operator, Founder/CEO at @tetoncryptocap, Co-founded @ShootProof, formerly @yahoo
Ep 31 - April 9, 2025 - Unmasking Satoshi
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